Crystal Ball

Short Term Predictions

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Darcy Conlin

Driverless cars are sure to revolutionize society as we know it. We at DriverlessTransportation.com are excited about the changes that will come from this new technology, and we believe that nearly every single person’s life will be impacted by this technology.

It’s particularly interesting to actually envision a world without drivers. What will it look like? What will it sound like? How will my everyday routine change? In addition, it’s interesting to think about the trajectory of this industry as a whole, and what will happen with time. At the bottom half of this page you will find what we thought might happen a year ago and the actual results.

As far as where we stand today, we wanted to again make our own predictions about what we see happening in the next year (or so). These are listed below. We cast short-term predictions about the technology, the business, the societal impact, and the legal ramifications that come with the introduction of driverless transportation.

If you’re interested, leave a comment with your own predictions. We’ll look back around this time next year and evaluate the outcomes.

Rick:

  1. There will be a sanctioned race between driverless cars on a closed racetrack where the winning average speed will be greater than 100 mph.
  2. DSRC Radio vendors will offer complete chip sets at quantities or 1MM plus for less than $25/unit
  3. The number of “test” cars with DSCR Radios broadcasting Basic Safety Messages (BSMs) in the US will be greater than 25,000 by the end of 2015

John:

  1. There will be actual platooning done with commercial vehicles. This will be on actual roads and not just test cases.
  2. A commercial company will announce a pilot program to begin in 2016 using driverless cars with real customers on regular roads.
  3. Microsoft or Apple will announce a new program, in conjunction with an Automotive OEM, to begin building a driverless car.

Manuel:

  1. Driverless technology knock offs will come out of China.
  2. Government legislation will be passed to control testing of driverless technologies prior to roll out.
  3. Cyber vulnerabilities will be discovered in existing SCATA systems (charging stations, update platforms).

Burney:

  1. I will attend a major transportation show and report on the event for Driverless Transportation.
  2. Google will partner with an international auto manufacturer in 2015 to advance driverless technology.
  3. The D20 Stock Index will top 150 before the end of the second quarter of 2015.

Collin:

  1. The 2015 Detroit Auto show will be looked back on as a pivotal moment for the development and acceptance of driverless cars/transport
  2. An “A-list” celebrity will publicly endorse driverless transportation on twitter or other social media causing a spike in interest
  3. This year’s superbowl will feature driverless transportation of some sort on the field during warm-ups/pre-game

Stephen:

  1. A major planned development including all driverless vehicles will be announced — but not in the United States. (My money is on UAE, but don’t count out Qatar, Kuwait, South Korea, or China.) Google will not be the technology partner.
  2. Driverless cars will push further into mainstream consciousness with an appearance on The Simpsons or Family Guy.
  3. Carnegie Mellon’s CHIMP team will win the DARPA Robotics Challenge in Pomona, CA this June. In the course of victory, CHIMP will become the first robot to drive a vehicle.

Giselle:

  1. Toyota will change it’s mind and will start developing autonomous vehicles
  2. Mercedes’ driverless cars will be more popular than Google’s because they will still be made with a steering wheel and pedals
  3. “Robo-ethics” will slow the progress of driverless transportation. For example, when faced with a dangerous collision, should the autonomous car be programmed to act in a way that will save it’s passenger(s) or to save as many lives as possible even if this means killing it’s own passenger(s)?

Amy:

  1. At least 4 other states will allow driverless cars on their roads.
  2. BMW takes their parking assist technology to the next level with a fully self-driving vehicle in the U.S.
  3. Google designs a more practical, advanced driverless prototype.

Darcy:

  1. Iowa along with one additional state will pass a bill allowing driverless vehicles on roads.
  2. USDOT will standardize the screen size display of communication platforms within AVs.
  3. Obama and First Lady Michelle will drive in an autonomous vehicle.

looking-back

 

 

 

At the end of 2013, each member of the team listed a set of predictions for the coming year. Here they are again and an analysis of how we did.

Rick: Total score: 0.5.

  1. Google hits a Million Miles on its driverless fleet. - Probably close but not quite.

In April Google announced 700,000 miles on its cars. August, 2012 announced 300,000. Which means they were on a 20k per month pace. Probably have more vehicles but have been concentrating more on in-town driving (which means less miles). Have to say no to this one.

  1. Tesla announces a schedule for driverless vehicle before 2018. -

Depends on how tightly we define this.   Give 1/2.

  1. One of the major Automakers (other than Toyota) announces a significant Partnership with Google.

Not for driverless. No points

John: Total Points: 1.5

  1. A driverless car will have an accident.

Based upon this article, John tried to argue Yes but we’re not going to give him the points - Zero points.

  1. A bill to allow driverless cars will be initiated in Virginia (and 3 other states).

He shouldn’t have said Virginia. But a number of other states such as Maryland, New Jersey and Louisiana have initiated bills. 1/2 point.

  1. Tesla and Google will announce that they are working together.

Didn’t happen - No Points.

  1. I will ride in a driverless car.John Estrada in Driverless Vehicle

Did happen. We even have a picture.

 

Manuel: Total score: 1.5 points.

  1. Major players in driverless technologies will turn to military contractors to harden and protect their systems from cyber attacks.

The industry didn’t move far enough for this. Zero points.

  1. Government legislation will step in again and fund the automotive industry supporting driverless transportation citing employment (job development) as its primary goal.

Haven’t see the job development but there is major funding. 1/2 point.

  1. One of the major computing hardware companies will develop a new system of systems backplane allowing the automotive industry to standardize how driverless technologies will be implemented.

We are seeing this the basics of this from both NVIDIA and Harbrick. 1 point.

  1. Legislation will be passed that endorses and legalizes only one of the driverless technologies.

This didn’t happen - 0.

Shawn: Total score: 1 point.

  1. Two driverless cars will crash and the occupants will want to sue. This will spark a public legal issue of who is liable when no one is driving. - Was a bit premature for this.
  2. An article on Driverless Transportation will make the front page of the Washington Post and/or a segment on 60 Minutes. Did happen.
  3. I will see someone riding in a driverless car at Stanford.

Didn’t happen. Perhaps Shawn should have gotten off campus more.

Guess it paid to give 4 predictions!   This year we limited it to 3 per person.