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D20 Stock Index week ending September 25, 2015

Volkswagen Drives D20 Down

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Driverless Transportation

Driven by Volkswagen’s huge loss the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index tumbled 5.8 percent and ended last week at 142.05.  The loss was broad based as D20 losers outnumbered gainers 18 to two. On news that the global economy is slowing, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 lost value last week although less than the D20 Index. The Dow ended the week at 1631.67, down 0.4 percent while the S&P 500 finished at 1931.34, down 1.4 percent.

A 34.3 percent drop in Volkswagen’s stock price was responsible for over a quarter of the D20 loss for the week. Volkswagen’s ADR (VLKPY) price hit a 52-week low of $21.87 on Monday, less than half its D20 Index high of $54.02 it hit just over six months last March. The automaker’s woes continue to be driven by the diesel pollution testing scandal.  Its CEO has resigned and shareholder lawsuits have arisen.  Volkswagen’s current financial crisis will curtail its ability to invest in driverless technologies as it tries to weather the government fines, shareholder lawsuits, and negative market impact of this scandal.

The lone Chinese company in the D20 Index, BYD Company (BYDDY), shone brightly this week rising almost 6 percent and finishing at $9.91. At 6.16 percent, it is now is the largest component of the D20 Index. BYD has added 17.4 percent to its ADR price since August 28 when the basis for the D20 Index was changed.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20 Stock Index week ending September 18, 2015

D20 Gainers Outnumber Losers for the Week with TomTom in the Lead

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Driverless Transportation

Two consecutive weekly gains have pushed the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index just over the 150 mark.  The D20 Index outpaced both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 by gaining 2.42 points or 1.63 percent to close the week at 150.83.  The Dow lost 0.3 percent of its value while the S&P gave back 0.15 percent.  In the D20, gainers outnumbered losers sixteen to four.

One of the D20’s newest members, TomTom (TOM2), led the advance this week with a 7.69 percent gain in value.  TomTom’s rise was due to a combination of factors.  First, since Nokia’s sale of its Here! mapping business, rumors continue to swirl around the prospect that TomTom will do the same.  Second, TomTom announced strong year to date sales results.  Right behind TomTom was BYD Company (BYDDY) who gained 6.98 percent.

The D20 loss leaders for the week were Volvo (VOLVY) who lost 4.30 percent of its value and Volkswagen (VLKPY) who lost 4.62 percent amid allegations that they cheated on their periodic state emissions testing for some of their diesel powered cars.

Since the D20 changed its measurement method on August 28th, 2015, the top three gainers have been:

The three biggest losers have been:

  • Mobileye (MBLY) – down 14.02%
  • Renesas (TYO:6732) – down 7.49%
  • Volkswagen (VLKPY) – down 4.83%

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20Sept11b

Growing Driverless Stock Index (D20) Reflects Dynamic Industry

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Driverless Transportation

We have some exciting changes in the Driverless Transportation D20 Index to announce. First off, we are replacing three companies in the index and making the D20 more international in scope. We also changed the basis for our calculation of the D20 Index, moving to a dollar averaged approach.

The three new stocks in the D20 are:

  1.  Amsterdam-based TomTom (TOM2) is traded on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. It replaces Nokia (NOK) which is selling its Here mapping division, its only business involved in driverless or connected vehicles. TomTom, known for its popular aftermarket GPS turn-by-turn directional devices for cars, has three units that are involved with driverless technology – the auto unit provides components such as maps, traffic and software to auto OEMs; the licensing group leverages maps, traffic and navigation content and services; and the telematics unit is dedicated to fleet management and vehicle telematics.
  2. Ontario, Canada-based Magna International (MGA) is traded on the NYSE. It replaces the lightly-traded KVH Inc. (KVHI), a business that primarily delivers ISP services for hotels, resorts and ships. Magna has a large and growing electronics division which focuses on driver assistance systems, as well as systems to support power-train electrification. It manufactures electronic, electromechanical and mechatronic products, and provides software and hardware development.
  3. Tokyo-based Renesas Electronics (TYO: 6723) trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It replaces Iteris (ITI), a lightly-traded firm that provides intelligent transportation systems for municipalities. Renesas was formed through a merger of NEC Electronics Corp., and Renesas Technology Corp., (a joint venture of Hitachi and Mitsubishi Electric). Renesas Electronics is a semiconductor manufacturer that designs, develops, manufactures, sells and services microcontrollers for the automotive industry.

The D20 Index now has companies — TomTom in Amsterdam and Renesas in Tokyo — with stocks that are primarily listed on non-US exchanges and use foreign currencies for prices. To calculate the D20 and include these stocks we convert the non-US stock prices (Euros and Japanese Yen) to US dollars using a current conversion ratio. The values were: Euro – currently 1.136 dollars per Euro; and Japanese Yen – currently .00829 dollars per Yen.

CALCULATING THE INDEX

We have changed the basis for calculating the D20 Index. Previously, the value of the D20 was calculated by using one share of stock from each of the 20 stocks in the index. With the new dollar-averaged approach we track the value of $1,000 invested in each of the 20 stocks. And on August 28, 2015 we started with roughly a total of $20,000 invested equally in the 20 stocks ($1,000 per company) in the D20 Index.

 

Name

  

Symbol

 (As of 8/28/2015)
Share Price Shares Currency Conversion Value
BlackBerry Ltd BBRY $             7.37 135.690 1.000 $           1,000
BYD COMPANY LTD ADR BYDDY $             8.44 118.480 1.000 $           1,000
Continental AG (ADR) CTTAY $           42.86 23.330 1.000 $           1,000
Daimler AG (USA) DDAIF $           80.70 12.390 1.000 $           1,000
Delphi Automotive PLC DLPH $           75.35 13.270 1.000 $           1,000
Denso Corp (ADR) DNZOY $           22.69 44.070 1.000 $           1,000
Ford Motor Company F $           13.73 72.830 1.000 $           1,000
General Motors Company GM $           29.01 34.470 1.000 $           1,000
Google Inc GOOG $       630.38 1.586 1.000 $           1,000
Magna MGA $           49.23 20.313 1.000 $           1,000
Mobileye NV Amsterdam MBLY $           56.42 17.724 1.000 $           1,000
Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (ADR) NSANY $           18.31 54.620 1.000 $           1,000
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA $           22.73 43.990 1.000 $           1,000
Tesla Motors Inc TSLA $       248.48 4.025 1.000 $           1,000
TomTom TOM2 €             8.97 100.010 1.115 $           1,000
Visteon Corp VC $       100.49 9.950 1.000 $           1,000
VALEO SA (ADR) VLEEF $           63.66 15.710 1.000 $           1,000
Volkswagen AG (ADR) VLKPY $           38.32 26.100 1.000 $           1,000
Volvo AB (ADR) VOLVY $           10.94 91.410 1.000 $           1,000
Renesas TYO:6732 ¥       708.00 168.008 0.00841 $           1,000

Why the change? We found that with the one-share approach the stocks with the highest prices, i.e., Google, trading over $600, and Tesla, over $250, could swing the D20 wildly with just a small change in their pricing. The dollar-average approach means each company in the D20 now makes up about five percent of the index’s underlying value.

Why didn’t the D20 Index change radically when we switched the basis? We have always used a divisor with the D20 Index, and it started as 10.0. That meant we added up all the stock prices at the close of the trading day and divided by 10. To switch to the new dollar-average approach we changed the divisor so the new D2’s underlying value would be the same as the old D2. So on August 28, 2015 we used the closing stock prices to find the value of each of the two D20s, then adjusted the divisor for the dollar-averaged D20 so it had the same value as the old D20. The new divisor is 134.27296.

On September 4 we switched over to the revised D20 Index with the three new stocks and the new divisor.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20Aug28b

Broad Based Bounce Back for the D20 Index

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Driverless Transportation

The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index outpaced the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 Index as they all rebounded sharply from last week’s pummeling. It was a broad-based bounce back as gainers outnumbered losers 17 to three, and the D20 added 5.4 points to finish the week at 148.95. The D20 Index’s gain of 3.8 percent tripled the Dow’s 1.1 percent gain and quadrupled the 0.9 percent gain of the S&P 500.

D20Compare1The D20 Index’s largest percentage gainer was Mobileye (MBLY), adding 8.9 percent to its value and ending the week at $56.42. Google (GOOG) and Tesla Motors (TSLA) were large absolute gainers this week adding $17.90 and $17.71 respectively.

The devaluation of the Yuan by China continues to hurt General Motors (GM) making it the largest percentage and absolute loser this week. It fell $0.59 or nearly 2 percent to finish the week at $29.01.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20 Stock index week ending August 21, 2015

Deep Dow Drop Dooms Driverless Index

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Driverless Transportation

With its biggest absolute loss ever, the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index followed the Dow Jones Industrials and gave back 6.6 percent of its value, falling 10.18 points to end the week at 143.55. Faced with a triple threat of bad news — a floundering Chinese economy, uncertainty at the U.S. Fed, and weakness in the commodities markets — the Dow lost 5.8 percent of its value, finishing the week at 16,459.75.

D20-DJ-SP-Stock-Index-week-ending-2015-08-21-weekly-changeFor the D20 Index, losers outnumbered gainers 19 to one. That lone bright spot was Iteris (ITI), which received good news about four new major customers and reported fairly positive quarterly results. The information technology supplier added 18 cents, or 9.5 percent, to close the week at $2.08.

Now the bad news. Google (GOOG) led the losers, shedding $44.64 a share, or 6.8 percent, to finish the week at $612.48. Meanwhile, BYD Co. (BYDDY) declined 14.7 percent and ended the week below $8 for the first time since early February. Other notable losers were Tesla (TSLA), down $12.38, and Mobileye (MBLY), dropping 13.1 percent or $7.84 per share.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

one year comparison of D20 Stock Index, Dow Jones and S&P 500

A Year of D20 Index Winners and Losers

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Driverless Transportation

It has been a little more than a year since we started tracking stocks for the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index. On August 1, 2014, the D20 Index started at 139.694, and since then it has gained 13.322 to finish on July 31, 2015, at 153.016, a one-year rise of 9.5 percent. That gain compares favorably to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index over that same period.

 

D20 Index Dow Jones Index S&P Index for year 2014-2015

The performance of the D20 Index component stocks displayed considerable diversity over that first year, as shown by the following table. Highlighted in green and red are each of the four stocks that finished as the top gainer and loser in stock value and by percent.

D20 Compositions prices for 2014-2015

By increasing its share price by $59.54 in the first year of the D20, Google (GOOG) was the index’s absolute price gainer by far. At over 40 percent Google 2014-2015of the D20 Index, when Google sneezes the D20 gets pneumonia.  That paid off for the index this July when Google had a stupendous month, rising from $521.84 on July 1 to $625.61 on the 31st, a gain of more than $100. Interestingly, without that great July, Google would have been our absolute price loser for the year.

 

 

 

Another shining star for the D20 Index in its inaugural year was Mobileye (MBLY), which led all D20 stocks in price percentage gained.  Mobileye’s IPO was only a few days before the August 1, 2014, start date of the index, and the Israel-based stock had a meteoric rise out of the gate. Reality set in from October 2014 to March 2105 when Mobilieye returned very close to its IPO price. Since March 2015 it has recorded steady monthly increases.Mobileye 2014-2015 In the D20’s first year Mobileye increased its share price a whopping 62.4 percent, rising from $37.00 to $60.10. As the only company in the D20 Index whose primary source of revenue is generated by “connected” or “driverless” products, this outstanding performance bodes well for the financial future of the driverless market.

Here’s another sign of just how well the D20 Index did in its inaugural year — the stock that saw the largest price loss dropped a mere $6.25 in value. Headquartered in Wolfsburg, Germany, Volkswagen (VLKPY) earned this dubious honor by riding its rollercoaster share price from $46.27 on August 1, 2014 to a close of $40.02 on July 31, 2015. During that period it closed as high as $54.02 and as low as $37.95. If sales volume is any indicator, Volkswagen may be on the rebound. It announced recently that it had passed Toyota as the largest passenger car maVolkswagen 2014-2015ker in the world by shipping more cars than anyone in the second quarter this year. And its Audi division is one of the leading auto OEMs in investing in driverless technologies.

 

The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD Company (BYDDY) has the distinction of being the D20 component stock whose share price lost the greatest percentage during the index’s first year. On August 1, 2014, BYD’s ADRs closed at $12.84. Its closing price on July 31 this year was $8.78, for a 31.6 percent loss in value. BYD 2014-2015In those 12 months BYD traded as high as $14.98 and as low as $6.48.  Even a significant investment from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway couldn’t keep BYD from losing almost a third of its value. Certainly some of that loss was due to the recent devaluation of the Chinese Yuan and the roiling financial effect that had on Chinese companies.

 

There will be some changes coming to the D20 Index in the next few weeks. Nokia’s sale of its HERE mapping business means it doesn’t have a presence in the driverless space, and it needs to be replaced in the D20. Better international representation would improve the D20 Index’s reflection of the global nature of driverless technology’s reach. And Google and Tesla (TSLA) together make up over 55 percent of the D20 Index value because of their high stock prices.  Although both are leaders in the driverless space, a smaller representation would be more reflective of the financial health of the industry.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20 Stock Index vs Dow Jones

Google Props Up Drifting Driverless Stock Index

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Driverless Transportation

Propped up by Google (GOOG), the Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index gained 0.3 percent last week to finish up 0.47 points at 153.73. Buoyed by the Alphabet announcement, Google added $21.82 and its stock closed at $657.12 on Friday. Without Google’s rise, the D20 Index would have lost 1.71 points, or 1.1 percent. Google’s 3.4 percent gain was tops in the D20 which saw 12 losers and eight gainers last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a 0.6 percent gain, and the S&P 500, with a 0.7 percent gain, outperformed the D20.

The recent devaluation in the Chinese currency, the Yuan, has hurt the lucrative Chinese market for the luxury German automakers. Daimler (DDAIF), owner of the Mercedes-Benz brand, lost 6.3 percent of its value and finished the week down $5.79 to $86.21. Volkswagen (VLKPY), owner of the prestigious Audi brand, lost $1.60, or 3.9 percent, to end the week at $39.94. The French parts maker Valeo SA (VLEEY) also seemed to be affected by the devaluation. Its ADR shares lost 6.7 percent of their value to close the week at $65.30. Further devaluations of the Yuan could rattle the larger markets and negatively affect the D20 Index.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20 Index vs Dow Jones week ending July 31, 2015

Quiet D20 Index Spends Week at the Beach

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Driverless Transportation

The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index had a quiet week as we neared August, rising only 0.34 points, or 0.2 percent, to finish at 153.016. Gainers outnumbered losers 11 to nine. This was the first week in the last six where Google (GOOG) didn’t mathematically dominate the D20 Index by being its absolute or percentage gainer or loser. Those leadership honors went to four other firms:

One notable streak was extended as BYD Company (BYDDY) fell for the seventh straight week. Although Volkswagen (VLKPY) announced that it had edged out Toyota for the title of largest automaker worldwide in the first half of 2015, it still lost $1.42 to close the week at $40.02.

Blackberry was strong, adding $0.41 or 5.6 percent, amid a lot of discussion in the press about how it should get out of the phone business. Other pundits think that the driverless car market will be Blackberry’s salvation as its QNX operating system continues to win market share away from automobile infotainment system rivals.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

D20 & DJ Stock Index

Driverless Index Rises Again, Shrugs Off Dow, S&P Losses

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Driverless Transportation

The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index rose 0.70 points to end last week at 149.913. Gainers outnumbered losers 12 to eight as the D20 Index managed its third consecutive weekly gain. In comparison, major indexes lost ground with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.4 percent to 17946.68 and the S&P 500 Index losing 0.4 percent, finishing at 2101.49.

Daimler (DDAIF) led the D20 Index as its largest percentage gainer, adding 4.7 percent to close at $97.04. Tesla (TSLA) notched its highest weekly closing value since the D20 Index was initiated last year, finishing up $4.58 to $267.09.

The D20’s largest absolute loser this week was Google (GOOG), declining $5.00 to close Friday at $531.69. Nvidia (NVDA) was the D20 percentage loser this week dropping 5.5 percent to end at $20.74.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.