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Driverless Trans Part of DOT Budget Battle

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Burney Simpson

Driverless transportation came to the fore last week as Congress considered President Obama’s 2016 budget request for the U.S. Department of Transportation. Proponents took the fight to voters, traveling out of Washington to convince the public to support the $95 billion proposal.

As part of that Obama asked Congress for $935 million over six years for the line item on autonomous driving technology called ‘Intelligent Transportation Systems & Automation Research Acceleration,’ (see pages 6 and 10 in this DOT Budget Highlights pdf).

DOT Secretary Anthony Foxx went to Silicon Valley last week, appearing at Delphi Labs in Mountain View, Calif., and arguing for his Beyond Traffic 2045 concept first launched in February.

Foxx pushed for greater road-related communication infrastructure, including requiring vehicle to vehicle (V2V) communication in all new cars. Foxx said he plans to send the rule request to federal regulators before the end of this year, speeding up the rule-making process from his previous plan.

The DOT’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is working with the Federal Communication Commission to test dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) standards in the 5.9GHz spectrum. The wireless protocols are used for V2V and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communications.

It’s not clear if driverless technology is a headline grabber that encourages voters to contact their elected officials to get behind the proposed budget. In the 1980s President Ronald Reagan drew widespread public backing for funding of his ‘Star Wars’ weapons shield in space that he said would protect America from nuclear rockets sent from the Soviet Union.

STATE INFRASTRUCTURE

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, construction unions joined with former Gov. Ed Rendell to publicize funding requests for transportation and infrastructure. The unions would like to raise the state gas tax to pay for the repair and construction of roads and bridges. Proponents say the gas tax was last increased in 1994.

Other states are raising their gas tax. Iowa implemented an increase in March, its first since 1984, and last week the Nebraska legislature overrode the governor’s veto to enact an increase that will start next year.

A recent article in the Harvard Business Review contends that giant transportation projects will only be completed if leaders build collaboration among a mix of supporters. In ‘Too Many Infrastructure Projects go it Alone’ author Rosabeth Moss Kanter writes,

“Systemic problems that affect everyone but are beyond the ability of any one person to solve require collaboration skills. To renew and reinvent our aging transportation infrastructure, we must turn our attention to coalition-building. Classic leadership lessons apply.

To create the conditions that support innovation, leaders need to build connections across companies, industries, and sectors.”

Kanter points to a number of successful collaborative projects including the 32-acre M City autonomous-vehicle test bed set to officially open this July in Ann Arbor, Mich. That project grew in part due to the coming together of major automakers, Google, the University of Michigan, the state DOT, and other interested parties, Kanter writes.

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Continental AG Leads D20 Index Rebound

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Driverless Transportation

The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index regained most of last week’s loss by adding 2.06 points, or 1.4 percent, to finish the week at 146.874. Twelve D20 Index stocks gained ground while seven lost value and one remained unchanged.

Adding to its three-week consecutive gain streak, Tesla Motors (TSLA) led the way with a $10.58 or 4.7 percent gain to end the week at $236.61. The percentage and absolute loser, NVIDIA (NVDA) fell sharply, losing $1.93, or 8.5 percent of its value, to close Friday at $20.82. The Santa Clara, Calif.-based tech house said it would announce lower earnings for its second quarter. Google (GOOG) was remarkably quiet this week gaining a tiny $0.32 or 0.1 percent.

This week’s D20 Index percentage gainer Continental AG ADR’s (CTTAY) price rose 5.2 percent to $48.93 on an increased sales projection for 2015. Continental has rebounded nicely since a low just under $35 in mid-October 2014.

The D20 Index began on August 1, 2014 valued at 139.694, and was launched publicly October 7. It includes OEMs, parts suppliers, technology companies, and technology OEMs, from around the world.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks.

StateStatusApril15

Three States Approve Autonomous Vehicle Legislation

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Burney Simpson

Three states this year enacted legislation to advance autonomous or connected vehicles, while legislators in nine states are still considering such proposals.

North Dakota approved a plan that would allow the testing of autonomous vehicles. Tennessee banned its counties and cities from banning autonomous vehicles as long as they are as safe as standard vehicles. Utah will conduct tests on connected vehicles.

One solid source for state legislation related to driverless transportation is a website maintained by the Stanford Center for Internet and Society. The pages on Legislative and Regulatory Action follow these developments and provide links to pertinent proposals. However, updates to the site can be slow. (The graphic here is the Center’s latest map tracking developments).

It is difficult to predict whether any of the nine states still considering proposals will pass anything. In state legislatures, proposals shunted off to a committee typically expire. However, it is not unknown that a proposal sitting in a committee for months will suddenly be revived, passed, and signed by the governor.

When monitoring state legislation — never count on anything, nor count anything out.

According to the Center’s updates, the following states took the lead on autonomous-vehicle legislation during their recent sessions:

Connecticut – Rep. Christie M. Carpino, a Republican from Cromwell, Portland, is the sponsor of HB 6344, a proposal that would allow the testing of autonomous vehicles. It has been stuck in committee for months.

Georgia – SB 113 is sponsored by Sen. Joshua McKoon, a Republican from Columbus. This proposal would create a new class of autonomous vehicles and allow for their testing on public roads. The bill passed through committee but has been hanging around the Senate since February.

Idaho – The Senate in March approved by a one-vote margin S1108 that would allow for the testing of autonomous vehicles on public roads. It was sent to the House and hasn’t been heard from since. Sen. Bert Brackett, a Republican from Rogerson, sponsored the bill.

Illinois – The House in April passed unanimously HB 3136, a proposal allowing the testing of autonomous cars on public roads. The legislation must be passed by the full Senate where it is sponsored by Sen. Martin A. Sandoval, a Democrat from Cicero. This one may still have a chance.

Massachusetts – House Bill 2977 creates some definitions for autonomous vehicles, and allows for their testing on public roads. Sponsor is Rep. Peter J. Durant, a Republican from Spencer. Nothing has happened on this one since January when it was sent to the Joint Committee on Transportation.

Missouri – Rep. Delus Johnson is sponsoring HB 924 that would allow testing of driverless vehicles for three years beginning this August. Nothing shaking here since a March committee hearing.

New Jersey – The Senate passed S734 that would direct the state Motor Vehicle Commission to set rules for the operation of autonomous vehicles. The House may consider twin bill A1326 before it adjourns.

New York – Proposal A31 is sitting in the Transportation Committee of the New York Assembly. Sponsor Rep. David F. Gantt, a Democrat from Rochester, wants to allow the testing of autonomous vehicles.

North Dakota – Legislators approved a measure to study automated vehicles, and Gov. Jack Dalrymple signed it on March 20.

Oregon – A proposal in the Senate would create a process to certify manufacturers to test, sell, and operate autonomous vehicles in Oregon. Sen. Sara Gelser, a Democrat from Corvallis is the chief sponsor of SB 620, which is sitting in the Business and Transportation Committee.

Tennessee – Gov. Bill Haslam signed into law in April a bill that prohibits any political body in the state from prohibiting autonomous vehicles if the vehicles meet all the state’s safety regulations.

Utah – Gov. Gary Herbert signed in March a bill authorizing the state Department of Transportation to conduct a test of connected vehicle technology.

A Maryland proposal that once looked promising was shot down before crossing the finish line. The House wanted to spend $200,000 to study autonomous vehicles but a Senate committee said no as the state looks to cut spending.

At this time only California, Florida, Michigan, Nevada and the District of Columbia have passed legislation allowing for the operation of autonomous vehicles. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration has issued regulation guidelines on the topic for states.

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Driverless Cabs Could Be Cheaper Than the Subway

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Burney Simpson

A driverless ‘robo-taxi’ could cost 35 percent less than a conventional taxi, and may even be cheap enough to compete with mass transit, according to the new report ‘Robo-Taxis and the New Mobility‘ by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

Commuters would probably be charged the cheapest robo-taxi rate because they would regularly schedule the vehicle in advance, travel from fixed start and end points, and share the ride with at least one other passenger, BCG reports. These taxis would offer a private compartment for each rider.

In its cost comparison, BCG uses an occupancy rate of 1.2 passengers per ride, the average rate for New York City cabs (See BCG chart above). A driverless robo-taxi carrying 1.2 passengers would cost $1.80 per passenger mile, compared with the $2.80 cost of a cab with driver, the research firm reports.

BCG found that a robo-taxi with two passengers would cost $1.10 per passenger mile, highly competitive with the $1 a mile cost for a subway ride. Theoretically, robo-taxis carrying commuters would be cheaper still if their operators received any of the local, state and federal funds that public transit receives.

Robo-taxi firms will be operated by ‘mobility providers’ – a mix of taxi companies, ride-sharing services, tech firms, and OEMs – that would rent their service either by the length of the ride or by the amount of time the vehicle is used.

BCG contends that robo-taxis would make ride-sharing services commonplace, reduce car ownership and congestion in urban areas, and even lower emissions.

For more on BCG’s research, see Driverless Transportation’s “Consumer Demand Will Bring Partial-Autonomous Driving Tech This Year: Study” on the firm’s ‘Revolution in the Drivers’ Seat: The Road to Autonomous Vehicles.’

Autonomous Roadmap

Autonomous Roadmap - How We’re Going to Get There

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John Estrada

The implementation and use of driverless vehicles is moving very fast indeed. Just 15 years ago, the auto industry was taking a go-slow approach to the concept of autonomous transport. DARPA changed that in 2004 when its challenges sparked an interest in both academic and commercial sectors. Then, Google committed its resources to the technology, and the idea caught on with those eager to embrace a revolutionary solution to traffic safety and ever-worsening congestion. Now, the major auto OEMs have ratcheted up their work in the driverless space.

In 2015, we see not only the organizations listed above but university research centers humming with ideas, the U.S. government investing in numerous projects, and Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and other countries making plans to allow driverless vehicles on their roads.

Organizations like SAE and NHTSA have tried to define this progress and technology through a series of levels. NHTSA has defined five levels (0 - 4) where 0 is no automation and 4 is a fully- autonomous vehicle that does all the driving, while SAE added an additional level to further qualify fully autonomous vehicles.

While these definitions are valuable, they don’t adequately represent where the technology stands today, and how it is progressing in the marketplace. For instance, there are already Level 4 vehicles used in specific, limited operations, such as the public rail systems in Detroit and Las Vegas, and the giant mining vehicles in Australia and Canada. A set of levels depicting automation simply isn’t adequate to track how the industry is progressing.

With this in mind, we are introducing the Driverless Transportation Autonomous Roadmap[1]. The basic concept is shown in the image below.

Autonomous Roadmap

 

Along the vertical axis, we have the four NHTSA Autonomous Driving levels. What we’ve added is the horizontal axis which indicates where the vehicles can operate. The roadway to the “Holy Grail” of a fully-autonomous car that can run on any road will follow the two paths as indicated by the arrows. It will move from bottom to top as indicated by the NHTSA levels but it will also move from left to right as these vehicles are used in the real world.

We’ve begun to track at a high level how the industry is doing on the Autonomous Roadmap shown here.

Autonomous Roadmap

Today, we’re seeing the starting points for both development lines. In production are vehicles that run autonomously on a limited group of roadways. These include the widely-used airport terminal trains along with the rail systems like those in Detroit and Las Vegas.

On the vertical axis, automobile manufacturers are introducing stand-alone autonomous features like adaptive cruise control and automated braking. In addition, some high end vehicles combine these features with lane tracking to give you a NHTSA Level 2 vehicle.

As we look to the later parts of 2015 and 2016, we see updates like those shown below with movement along both paths.

Autonomous Roadmap

 

So where will we be in 2017? When will there be an autonomous vehicle that runs on All Public Roadways?

We’d like to hear what you think of the Autonomous Roadmap. Please take a moment to comment.

 

[1] We’d like to recognize Matthieu Van Der Elst from Michelin who scratched out a drawing at the 2014 AV Symposium which is the inspiration for the Autonomous Roadmap.

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PolySync Syncs Up With PrismTech

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Burney Simpson

It’s been a busy few weeks for AutonomouStuff, the Morton, Ill.-based supplier of components and services for the autonomous and driverless industry, and its spin off Harbrick, developer of the PolySync out-of-the-box operating system for autonomous vehicles.

Last week, Harbrick said PolySync would use the intelligent data sharing platform of PrismTech’s Vortex to control, monitor, and regulate its data interfaces, and ensure that the “right data gets to the right place in real-time.”

Vortex is based on the Object Management Group’s Data Distribution Service (DDS) open standard to provide device-to-device, device-to-cloud and cloud-to-cloud Internet scale real-time data sharing.

Harbrick likens PolySync to that of an Android or iOS for mobile apps developers. It is designed to provide a plug and play ecosystem of sensors, actuators, computing hardware, and third party software for autonomous vehicle developers. The newest version of PolySync was officially released to the public on March 31.

Idaho-based Harbrick has also been busy in its state legislature, pushing a proposal that would allow for the testing of autonomous vehicles on state roads. In March, the senate approved the measure but it appears to be stuck in the House Transportation Committee.

Also last month, AutonomouStuff announced it had forged a sales and support relationship with Mobileye, the Israel-based provider of driver assistance programs that process visual information using software algorithms, system-on-a chip and customer applications. The deal specifically gives AutonomouStuff the right to distribute Mobileye’s 560 Extended Log Camera Development Kit.

AutonomouStuff markets LiDAR, radar, GPS, laser equipment, other autonomous-driving related equipment, in addition to processing tools like PolySync. AutonomouStuff will be at the AUVSI Unmanned Systems conference in Atlanta in May 5-7.

Graphic illustration by PolySync.

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Driver Distraction an Epidemic: Va. Tech’s Fitch

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Driverless Transportation

Greg Fitch is a research scientist who leads the User Experience Group at the Center for Automated Vehicle Systems at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute in Blacksburg, Va. Fitch will be presenting a case study on automated vehicle interface and human interaction at the USI 2015 Conference in Las Vegas in September, with research from Virginia Tech and the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA).

This is an edited version of an interview conducted by USI. Visit here for the complete interview.

What are you working on?

I’m investigating the human factors pertaining to automated vehicles, the distraction potential of automotive head-up displays, the reliability of automatic emergency braking systems on commercial vehicles, and driver performance and crash risk when using portable aftermarket devices.

How will vehicle automation impact distracted driving?

Driver distraction is a growing epidemic, primarily because of the number of devices people bring into the vehicle and use while driving. We need to ensure drivers understand when they need to be monitoring the road, and when they are allowed to withdraw from the driving task (in the case of highly automated vehicles).

NHTSA has added automatic braking technology to its recommended safety features for new vehicles. What similar technologies will follow suit?

Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) is a tremendously promising safety system. It stands to prevent or substantially reduce the severity of rear-end crashes by initiating a braking maneuver if the driver fails to do so. Drivers often fail to brake because they are visually distracted. Keeping the driver’s eyes on the road, particularly when operating partially automated vehicles, is imperative.

There are several technologies that will help accomplish this goal. First is advanced voice recognition systems. Voice interfaces have been developed to allow drivers to interact with technology while keeping their eyes on the road and their hands on the wheel. However, these systems can be unreliable and difficult to use for some drivers. This can lead to drivers performing visual and manual interactions instead, which are well-known to be riskier. Once voice interaction with technology resembles voice interaction with humans, I think we’ll see a widespread adoption.

Another promising technology is Head-Up Displays (HUDs).The type of information HUDs project will greatly change over the next five years. Designed well, they can help drivers keep their eyes on the road while monitoring the state of the automated vehicle system, and alert the driver when control needs to be transferred back to them.

According to NHTSA, half of all traffic fatalities result from roadway departures. Current Lane Keeping Assist (LKA) systems help keep vehicles in their lane on straight roads. However, extending LKA system operation to maintain a more central position in curved lanes will greatly reduce single vehicle roadway departures. Improved vehicle sensors and digital maps will bring great improvements in centering.  

How will the timeline for truck-automation compare to car automation? Will certain features be more critical to one than the other?

Car automation will be driven by improved convenience and comfort, while truck automation will be driven by return-on-investment decisions. For cars, systems like traffic jam assist and self-parking cars will be in high demand and undergo rapid development. Given that truck fleets want leaner operations such as improved fuel efficiency and logistics, I think systems like platooning will be sought after.

Although safety is a fundamental reason automated vehicle technology should be developed, it will likely not be the primary reason people purchase the technology. Fortunately, safety improvements stand to be potential secondary benefits of the above technologies because of the automatic braking these systems provide.

What are the most critical obstacles to overcome to move from near-automation to fully- automated vehicles?

Surveys of subject matter experts indicate that regulation will be the greatest barrier to overcome for the deployment of highly automated vehicles. The main question is who will be at fault if a highly automated vehicle crashes. Another is what sensors are needed to yield reliable performance in inclement weather. This is of interest to me because we routinely perform controlled vehicle testing in artificially-created snow, rain, and fog on the Virginia Smart Road test track at the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute.

Photos from Va. Tech Transportation Institute.

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Fools Rush in to Cover Driverless Providers

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Burney Simpson

Another sign that driverless technology has become commonplace — stock analysts are following the field as another major industry description, like automotive or finance or utilities.

Motley Fool’s David Williamson, usually their healthcare analyst, has begun covering the sector, writing up a brief overview of the field, along with a snapshot of Tesla.

This week Williamson posted a piece with recommendations on visual technology experts Mobileye and auto-parts supplier Delphi. Williamson notes that these are two of the firms most likely to capitalize on the growth of driverless vehicles, as they will create the technology and/or sell it to the auto OEMs.

Similarly, Driverless Transportation is compiling profiles of the companies in our Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index, which includes the major publicly-traded firms in the driverless/connected/autonomous sector.

At this time, the D20 is an indicator of the state of the industry, you can’t trade it, and the profiles are introductions to the firms and their products, along with some financial background, there’s no thumbs up or down on the stock. We just posted the French auto supplier Valeo, joining write-ups on Mobileye, Nokia and several others.

Graphic by Dave Gough, 2006.

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Gasoline Use in U.S. Continues 30-Year Decline: UMTRI

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Burney Simpson

American drivers used less gasoline in 2013 than 2012, continuing a 30-year decline in the use of the vehicle fuel, according to the latest update in a multipart study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) in Ann Arbor.

Gas usage levels rose to a peak a decade ago, according to Research Professor Michael Sivak, but overall numbers have been declining since 1984, the start date for his study, ‘Has Motorization in the U.S. Peaked?’

In the Part 7 update of the study, Sivak found that in 2013 gallons of gasoline consumed in the U.S. per person, driver, vehicle and household were below 1984 levels, “and down 14 percent to 19 percent from peak levels a little more than a decade ago (2003-2004).”

Sivak believes the declines are due to greater vehicle fuel economy combined with societal changes that include increased telecommuting and use of public transportation, an urbanization of the population, and fewer light duty vehicles that are driven less.

He reports that:

  • “In 2013, the amount of fuel consumed was about 392 gallons per person (down 17 percent from 2004), 583 gallons per driver (down 16 percent from 2004), 524 gallons per vehicle (down 14 percent from 2003) and 1,011 gallons per household (down 19 percent from 2004).
  • In 1984, annual fuel-consumption rates were 400 gallons per person, 608 gallons per driver, 602 gallons per vehicle and 1,106 gallons per household.”

The declines reported from 2004 to 2103 occurred despite population growth of about 8 percent.

The study is an analysis of changes from 1984 through 2013 “in the number of registered light-duty vehicles, and the corresponding changes in distance driven and fuel consumed,” according to a release from Sivak, a research professor in UMTRI’s Human Factors Group.

Photo of gas pumps 2008 by Natalie Maynor.

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States Accelerating Driverless Car Action

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Burney Simpson

More states are exploring legislation on autonomous driving and more local organizations are holding conferences on driverless cars as public interest in the concept grows. The latest is North Dakota, host in May to the Central North American Trade Corridor Association (CNATCA) Summit, and where the state legislature this month passed a bill calling for a study on autonomous vehicles.

There are 15 states that now are considering legislation related to driverless technology, according to the Automated Driving: Legislative and Regulatory Action website from the Center for Internet and Society at Stanford University, the creator of the graphic of the U.S. used for this story.

The Center acknowledges the data isn‘t always up to date, and indeed its current map of the states fails to reflect that Maryland is now considering funding a task force on autonomous driving (“Maryland a Step Closer to Driverless Roads,” March 5). Still, the website provides a concise source on state legislative activities and autonomous driving.

Meanwhile, the National Conference of State Legislatures is building a website devoted to state activity on driverless transportation according to Anne Teigen, a program principal/attorney who focuses on transportation issues for the NCSL, an organization that provides research and other services to state legislators and their staff.

The site is scheduled to be launched in May and include a comprehensive list of state legislative activity, NCSL studies, stories on the topic, and several blogs, said Teigen.

AUTONOMOUS FRIENDLY CORRIDOR

The North Dakota Legislature in March passed a bill calling for a study of automated motor vehicles to be conducted later this year or in 2016. State Sen. George Sinner notes that North Dakota’s climate offers an alternative for testing driverless vehicles compared with the weather in California, Florida, Michigan, and Nevada, the states that already allow such testing.

“Our road conditions are very different. We have snow, icy roads, white outs. That’s why we think this is a good idea,” said Sinner. “These autonomous vehicles are going to have to operate in this climate too.”

North Dakota is also home to CNATCA, a not-for-profit that seeks to grow trade in the Central Plains through the six states of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

One part of its strategy is to create what it calls an “Autonomous Friendly Corridor” about 20 miles wide with US 83 at its center as it travels nearly 1,900 miles from Canada to Mexico. CNATCA would like to see long-haul autonomous vehicles and unmanned drones carry and deliver goods up and down the corridor.

“(North Dakota is) in an energy boom right now and so is Texas. We’re seeking to develop a better infrastructure for moving goods North to South,” said Marlo Anderson, a CNATCA board member. “There’s a shortage of drivers, and our roads are under-used from midnight to early morning. Autonomous vehicles would address both issues.”

The CNATCA Summit will be held May 18-20 at Bismarck State College in Bismarck, N.D. The first day of the summit features demonstrations from companies developing such unmanned vehicles as drones and driverless cars. The demo is organized by AUVSI, the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International.

The AUVSI is also a  sponsor of the Automated Vehicle Symposium 2015 to be held July 21-23 in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Events

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