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D20 Stock Index week ending October 23, 2015

GM Takes D20 Over 160

Driverless Transportation

The Driverless Transportation (D20) Stock Index broke the 160 barrier for the first time ever, finishing at 160.77 last week. For the fourth consecutive week, the D20’s 2.9 percent gain outpaced the 2.5 percent gain in the Dow Jones Industrials and the 2.1 percent rise in the S&P 500 Index. The D20 saw 17 stocks finishing higher while three declined.

This week’s largest loser was Tesla (TSLA) down 7.9 percent on news that Consumer Reports held back its rating on the Model S owing to reliability concerns. Tesla finished the week at $209.09, its lowest point since mid-April 2015. On the driverless front, Tesla announced the release of its Autopilot update for the Model S. The reviews of the software update for existing cars are mostly positive, but some users have complained that the Model S takes turns too fast in Autopilot mode.

D20 Stock Index versus Dow Jones Index versus S&P weekly change ending week of October 23, 2015On the bright side, General Motors (GM) posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain by adding 8.5 percent and ending the week at $35.95 a share. Most of the jump was due to GM’s surprisingly positive third-quarter earnings announcement. GM has adopted a quiet but aggressive plan to develop “self-driving” cars.

Other D20 stocks that put in strong showings last week were Alphabet (GOOG) up 6.0 percent, Continental (CTTAY) up 6.9 percent, Magna (MGA) up 6.0 percent, and Valeo (VLEEY) up 6.2 percent.

Visit the Driverless Transportation D20 Stock Index page to learn more about it and its component stocks

CapitolConstruct1

Autonomous Tech Scales Capitol Hill

Burney Simpson

The autonomous transportation industry brought its game to Capitol Hill this week, holding a nearly all-day event that featured speeches from a U.S. Senator, four Congressmen, and a number of driverless leaders, all over the course of a luncheon, a seminar, and a showcase event/cocktail party with several dozen of the top firms in the business.

Not bad for a day’s work.

Trade group ITS America put on ‘The Future of Mobility: Rethinking Transportation for the Next 30 Years’ and garnered the participation of Sen. Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, and Representatives Earl Blumenauer, an Oregon Democrat, Rodney Davis, an Illinois Republican, and Peter DeFazio, a Democrat from Oregon.

While much of the conversation was positive and friendly, a few of the seminar panelists took the opportunity to raise issues that Congress may have to address someday.

  • Data Privacy and Security — Daniel Morgan, chief data officer with the US Department of Transportation, noted that the security and privacy of citizen travel data was essential but that the information could be beneficial for metropolitan planners. Morgan floated the idea that a third party firm be responsible for collecting and storing the data if people objected to the federal government holding it.
  • Reserving DSRC wavelength for V2V and V2I — Alan Korn, an executive with heavy-truck parts supplier Meritor WABCO, said the Dedicated Short-Range Communications 5.9 GHz spectrum must be reserved for Vehicle-to-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure communications to ensure autonomous driving safety. Later, Sen. Peters said that new technology may allow for the sharing of the 5.9 spectrum with other Wi-Fi users.
  • Driverless Timeline — Supplying a welcome dose of reality was Tom Dingus, director of the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI). Dingus said developing a truly autonomous system would be considerably more difficult and probably take longer than some recent studies and press reports suggest. Driverless vehicles will have to be safer than the much-maligned human driver but consider that the average human has one rear-end crash every 25 years, and makes 3 million braking decision in that time, said Dingus. “It is very difficult to build a system that is that robust,” said Dingus.

The exhibition hall featured 22 organizations involved with autonomous transportation development, including Eberle Design, Econolite, GM, Iteris, the University of Michigan Mobility Transformation Center, NXP Semiconductors, Southwest Research Institute, and Uber.

VTTI was there too taking a bit of a victory lap after its successful demo this week on a nearby highway of its driverless Cadillac SRX. The ride along featured Sen. Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, and generated extensive media coverage (See “Virginia Seeks Autonomous Research Lead,” October 20, 2015).

The showcase garnered a little more exposure for the technology with another half-dozen members of Congress visiting the exhibit hall to check out the firms on display, according to an ITS spokesperson.

The day also offered an exhibit of a DeLorean car from an old movie that predicted people would fly on skateboardy-type things. This fascinated a number of Gen-Yers and Millennials who took selfies.

Photo: United States Capitol, 2015, Matt C.

VaTechVaTest1

Virginia Seeks Autonomous Research Lead

Burney Simpson

The competition for autonomous driving research dollars was ramped up Monday by the state of Virginia and its research university Virginia Tech at a driverless vehicle test drive in Arlington held for members of the Washington, D.C., press corps.

On hand for the one-hour drive on I-395 in Arlington, and for a press conference after, were Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the state’s transportation secretary, a leader from the US Department of Transportation, and several other Virginia transportation movers and shakers.

The test was organized by the VaTech Transportation Institute (VTTI) which announced in June it would begin offering for autonomous and connected vehicle tests about 70 miles of congested highways, suburban streets and rural roads in the Washington metropolitan area. Auto OEMs, the US DOT, and industry vendors test their vehicles and technology on the tracks. (“VaTech Leaves ‘Em Eating Its Dust in the Race to be the Top Driverless Test Track”).

Warner said Virginia was working to become a major research area for autonomous-aerial, -vehicle, and -maritime technology. “This is the next great disruptive technology,” said Warner. “Put billions into this and you will see the commercial aspects of this much, much faster.”

A NEW ECONOMY

Virginia Secretary of Transportation Karen Jackson said the state is reaching out to grab more automated vehicle research dollars as it shifts away from its reliance on defense spending.

Virginia is home to the Pentagon – the test drive began on Army Navy Drive around the corner from the complex – and a long-time beneficiary of military research dollars. But the budget sequestration of 2013 brought automatic 10 percent spending cuts to the Defense Department that year, and continuing reductions into 2021.

“The sequestration made us brutally aware of our reliance on the defense sector,” said Jackson. “We are building a new Virginia economy.”

The VaTech testing program has brought $300 million to the state since it began about 20 years ago, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Testing of autonomous technology could go on for decades. Several speakers noted that expert firms predicted that it could take anywhere from three to 30 years for driverless technology to become commonplace.

TEST TRACK RIVALRY

The high profile road show also was a sign of the rivalry for autonomous driving test dollars between VTTI, the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI), and the GoMentum Station in Concord, Calif.

UMTRI operates the 32-acre Mcity test track in Ann Arbor, Mich., (“Michigan Launches Mcity Automated Vehicle Test Track as AVS Convenes”), while GoMentum Station offers 20 miles of urban-like test roads near Silicon Valley, home of driverless leader Google, satellite offices of the major auto OEMs, and rumored players like Apple.

Dr. Tom Dingus, director of the VTTI, suggested that his organization is now the international autonomous track leader.

“Ten years ago, we were half the size of UMTRI. Now we are double the size and we have 75 sponsors, more than UMTRI,” said Dingus.

The event on Monday successfully garnered attention with stories by The Washington Post, the Associated Press, items on several local TV stations, and the local radio news leader. In June, VTTI earned about a half-dozen stories from local media at a test near its Blacksburg, Va., campus (“Get Me B-Roll! Driverless Car Test a Hit With Local TV”).

WORKED LIKE A CHARM, EXCEPT …

The actual autonomous drive occurred in a Cadillac SRX with much of its driverless operating system contained in the trunk. In addition, German-based auto-parts supplier Continental operated a Chrysler 300C. Warner and US DOT Assistant Secretary of Research Greg Winfree got to ride in the Caddy while about a dozen reporters followed in a driven van that offered a large screen with shots of the action in the Cadillac.

The lunch-time drive was on nearly-empty lanes that are typically busy but are turned around after rush hour.

The Cadillac was operating at Level 3 of autonomous technology, with the vehicle operating the accelerating, braking, and steering, while a driver in the driver’s seat remained capable of taking immediate control of the car.

During the demo the driverless car reacted to staged events including some workers standing at a stopped vehicle, a squad car roadside, and slower autos in front of the Caddy. For the most part the Caddy worked like a charm except when it suddenly switched lanes and the test driver took over as a patrol car came speeding up behind it.

Warner admitted afterwards he had a moment of terror but that the drive overall was a success.

VaTech has partnered on the Northern Virginia part of its automated testing roadways with hi-tech mapmaker HERE, toll road operator Transurban, and the state’s DOT and DMV.

Photo courtesy VaTech Transportation Institute.