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VTTI Report: Self-Driving Cars Have Lower Crash Rates Than Conventional Cars

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Jennifer van der Kleut

A new study by the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) declares what many have long suspected would be true-that self-driving cars have lower crash rates than conventional, human-driven cars.

Interestingly (but not surprisingly), the VTTI study was commissioned by Google, though the study’s authors say the findings are solely those of the institute.

As to how the study was conducted: “The report examines national crash data and data from naturalistic driving studies that closely monitors the on-road experience of 3,300 vehicles driving more than 34 million vehicle miles, to better estimate existing crash rates, and then compares the results to data from Google’s Self-Driving Car program.”

According to the report, self-driving cars have a rate of 3.2 crashes per million of miles, where traditional human-driven cars have a rate of 4.2 crashes per million miles. The study reportedly adjusted the data for unreported crashes, and takes into account the severity of the accidents.

Industry followers and news outlets alike have been closely following Google’s reporting of around 17 accidents involving its self-driving test cars in Silicon Valley, and just in the past week, the company’s report of the few hundred times a human passenger in one of their test cars had to suddenly take over control of the vehicle for safety reasons.

Early news outlets picking up on the report are already debating the study’s ultimate conclusions.

As Insurance Journal says, “The [study’s] authors note that the data also suggest that conventional vehicles may have higher rates of more severe crashes than self-driving cars, but there is insufficient data to draw this conclusion with strong confidence, given the small overall number of crashes for the self-driving cars.”

In truth, only one of Google’s roughly 17 accidents involved any reported injuries. That crash reportedly involved minor whiplash for the Google employees in the vehicle, and after being evaluated at a hospital, they were cleared to return to work. The driver of the other car also reported minor back and neck pain.

The study’s authors assert that there is “statistically-significant data that suggest less severe events may happen at significantly lower rates for self-driving cars” than conventional vehicles.

Insurance Journal also points out a January 2015 report by University of Michigan and the Sustainable Worldwide Transportation consortium of researchers, which said that “It is not clear that a self-driving vehicle would ever perform more safely than an experienced, middle-aged driver, and during the transition period when conventional and self-driving vehicles would share the road, safety might actually worsen.”

Another point many parties have brought up is that early data is not truly representative of the situation because self-driving cars have not yet been tested in varying weather conditions.

It has been less than two months since Ford began testing its self-driving prototypes in Michigan’s fierce winter weather, including snow and ice, at the Mcity testing grounds. Early findings from those tests have been positive, and Ford executives say the cars have been performing well in such conditions.

 

 

Ford-driverless-test-car-in-snow

Testing Driverless Cars in Snowy Winter Weather - Check!

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Jennifer van der Kleut

It’s an announcement industry followers have been waiting for.

Finally, a company that is heavily invested in autonomous and connected-car technology is putting it to the test in extreme weather.

Ford Motor Co., together with the University of Michigan, announced this week that the partners have been testing the technology in snowy, icy winter weather over the past month, and will continue.

As Forbes points out, one of the factors that makes Michigan an ideal location for testing autonomous cars is the widely varying weather from season to season-that and, of course, the fact that the University has Mcity, its 32-acre testing ground with a fake cityscape, built specifically for testing autonomous and connected-car technology.

One burning question that industry professionals have long been asking is how well autonomous car technology would fare in extreme weather when rain, snow or ice might obstruct cameras and sensors. As WIRED puts it, “Radar and LIDAR do most of the work looking for other cars, pedestrians, and other obstacles, while cameras typically read street signs and lane markers.”

If those systems are obstructed, one could find himself in a dangerous situation. This is why many are eager to hear how Ford’s tests are going.

Jim McBride, Ford’s head of autonomous research, told WIRED that Ford creates a high-fidelity, 3D map of the area its test car is going to travel before a test drive. This form of “self-locating” helps its cars compensate in inclement weather conditions.

According to McBride, “Those maps include details like the exact position of the curbs and lane lines, trees and signs, along with local speed limits and other relevant rules. The more a car knows about an area, the more it can focus its sensors and computing power on detecting temporary obstacles—like people and other vehicles—in real time.”

News like this sheds light on why high-profile deals and partnerships with mapping and navigation companies like TomTom and Nokia’s HERE are such big business right now, and why industry analysts think Google’s acquisition of traffic tracking app Waze a few years ago will prove to be a big boon in the driverless race.

All in all, McBride told WIRED he is very confident Ford’s tests in snow and ice will go well.

“We’re able to drive perfectly well in snow,” he said.

University of Michigan's 'Mcity' testing ground for connected and autonomous cars.

Ford Takes On Mcity With Driverless Fusion Hybrid

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Jennifer van der Kleut

The news was big when the University of Michigan cut the ribbon for its “fake city,” built specifically to test connected and autonomous cars, during the summer of 2015.

Though the city may be fake, the scenarios aren’t-there are simulated traffic lights, obstacles like roundabouts and tunnels, various terrains like brick and gravel, and even fake pedestrians that connected and autonomous test cars need to navigate as they travel around the streets of the 32-acre city.

Ford-which was one of the companies who partnered with the university’s Mobility Transformation Centre (MTC) to help get Mcity going, along with others like Delphi Automotive, Denso, Honda, General Motors, Toyota and Xerox-announced recently that it planned to be the first automaker to test a driverless car at Mcity.

According to news outlets, Ford followed through on that promise last month.

Stuff reports that Ford tested its Fusion Hybrid Autonomous Research Vehicle (ARV) throughout the fake city.

As many news outlets report, Mcity is expected to be a crucial testing ground for autonomous cars this winter, as Michigan is known for its heavy snowfall, ice and brutal conditions.

Tech Times reports that Ford’s goal is to have autonomous cars in mass production by 2021.

New University of Michigan poll suggests drivers still wary of handing over control to autonomous cars

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WZZM

A 'downtown' area for driverless and connected test cars to maneuver through in M City, a small city created to be a testing ground in Michigan.

U of M Celebrates Grand Opening of ‘M City’ Testing Ground; 2015 AVS Shows Signs That Debut of Advanced Technologies Could Be Imminent

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John Estrada

 

This week was a big one for the world of automated vehicles, particularly in Michigan. First, the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute, or UMTRI, celebrated the grand opening of its M City test facility.

An intersection in M City, a small city created to be a testing ground for driverless and connected vehicles in Michigan.

An intersection in M City, a small city created to be a testing ground for driverless and connected vehicles in Michigan.

The facility is designed for the testing of automated and connected vehicles in a controlled environment. It has a wide range of road types, from freeway exits to city streets to roundabouts (traffic circles). Additionally it has realistic signage and other roadway features. The stop sign even has graffiti on it!

This was a major event on Monday, with the governor of Michigan, both of the state’s U.S. senators and numerous industry VIPs all in attendance.

A 'downtown' area for driverless and connected test cars to maneuver through in M City, a small city created to be a testing ground in Michigan.

A ‘downtown’ area for driverless and connected test cars to maneuver through in M City, a small city created to be a testing ground in Michigan.

Additionally this week, Michigan hosted the 2015 Automated Vehicle Symposium (AVS). This is the fourth year for this show, and the second in which it has been co-hosted by TRB and AUVSI. Jane Lappin from the DOT Volpe Research Center in Massachusetts, who is one of the main organizers of the show, noted early on that it was getting harder to get speakers for the show, even though the industry is clearly growing, which hopefully is an indication that announcements and rollouts of new technologies must be just over the horizon. That definitely seemed to be the case, as most of the main speakers really didn’t present anything new.[1]

An autonomous vehicle prototype on display at the 2015 AVS symposium in Ann Arbor, Mich. in July 2015.

An autonomous vehicle prototype on display at the 2015 AVS symposium in Ann Arbor, Mich. in July 2015.

One exception to this was the presentation by Dr. Mark Rosekind of NHTSA. Dr. Rosekind was the initial keynote speaker at the opening session. He noted that today, “motorists have had to accept that loss of life is part of the cost of mobility.” He discussed how the DOT is accelerating its effort to change this model, in particular with the moving up of the timetable for the requirements on DSRC safety requirements.

He also discussed how the government was increasing its focus on cybersecurity. This was very timely given the article this week in Wired Magazine about the hacking of a Jeep Cherokee while it was driving on a St. Louis freeway. As we move control of vehicles from drivers to connected technology built by engineers and programmers, this will only take on a much greater requirement.

This was the biggest show in the series to date, and we expect an even bigger show next year.

[1] We were asked not to present any information on the breakout sessions. These did contain some more interesting details.